Nan Jiang

Research Projects

14 Feb 18
with: Social Policy Evaluation and Research Unit: Superu categories: Literature reviewResearchHousing & Homelessness

This research looks at residential movements in New Zealand. Previous studies have linked frequent movement with poor outcomes for the affected individuals and their families, including poor education and health outcomes. Frequent residential moves, especially involuntary ones, can also worsen physical and mental wellbeing and future human capital.

This research found that 5.6% of New Zealanders moved three or more times during the three year period studied. Over two-thirds of this group (4% of the population) were classified as being vulnerable transient, which is approximately 150,000 people. These people experienced at least three moves in three years, with a least one move towards or within our most deprived neighbourhoods.

Being female, Māori, associated with a social welfare benefit, experiencing social housing, facing court charges, having a Child Youth and Family (CYF)* event, having a mental health event or visiting a hospital emergency department are all associated with a substantial increase in the chances of being in this group. The most important characteristic appears to be association with a social welfare benefit.

This report was commissioned at the request of the Minister of Finance as part of the Ministerial Social Sector Research Fund, which is used to respond to research and evaluation questions from Ministers. The research was conducted by the New Zealand Work Research Institute at AUT University.


* The research covers a period before CYF became the Ministry for Children Oranga Tamariki.

18 Feb 15
with: Ministry of Social Development: MSD categories: Poverty & Child PovertyUnemploymentFamilies & WhānauParentingPolicyChildrenSocio-economic statusMonitoringAbuse & Neglect

Ministry of Social Development commissioned the University of Auckland’s to consider how predictive modelling could be used to target early intervention to reduce the risk of child abuse and neglect, and improve outcomes for children and young people.

The University of Auckland’s research developed a predictive risk model for children in a cohort who had contact with the benefit system before age two. These children accounted for 83% of all children in for whom findings of substantiated maltreatment were recorded by age 5.

This research indicates that predicting risk modelling had a fair, approaching good, power in predicting which of the young children having contact with the benefit system would be the subject of substantiated maltreatment by age five. This is similar to the predictive strength of mammograms for detecting breast cancer in the general population.This report provides further detail on the predictive risk modelling system outlined in the White Paper for Vulnerable Children. The research indicates that bringing together administrative data can significantly improve the identification of at-risk children by linking Ministry of Social Development (MSD) benefit, care and protection and youth justice data.